The format of a daily observation

What I observed

This is where the raw fact goes. One concrete thing you noticed today — a market move, a conversation, a data point, a pattern at work. Be specific: numbers, names, sources.

Example: "The 10-year yield moved 15bps on a jobs report that was only mildly above consensus."

Why it matters

This is the context section. Zoom out: what larger machine is this observation a part of? What would most people reading the same headline miss?

The discipline here is separating the event (section one) from the meaning (this section). Most bad analysis comes from blending the two.

My take

This is where you commit to a view — and say how confident you are. A take without a confidence level can't be audited later. Something like: "I think X, and I'd put 70% on it."

Writing this down before the outcome is known is the whole point of the exercise.

What I'm watching

Every observation ends with a falsifiable follow-up: what specific signal would tell you that you were right or wrong? This turns each entry into a small, checkable prediction instead of a vibe.

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This is a sample post. Run npm run new "Your title" to create a fresh one with this same structure, then delete the two samples.