Why I'm starting this

What I observed

I've noticed that I remember my conclusions but not my reasoning. When I look back at decisions from a year ago, I can recall what I decided, but the chain of logic — what I knew at the time, what I weighed, what I dismissed — is gone.

Why it matters

Without a record of reasoning, hindsight rewrites everything. Good outcomes feel like skill, bad outcomes feel like bad luck, and I never find out which of my thinking patterns are actually reliable.

My take

A daily observation, written before outcomes are known, is the cheapest possible tool for auditing my own judgment. Ray Dalio has done this for decades with Bridgewater's Daily Observations. I don't manage billions — but the discipline scales down perfectly.

What I'm watching

The real test is whether I'm still writing these in 90 days. Streaks die in week three; that's the milestone to beat.